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The history of human epidemiology proves that for any newly emerged infectious disease epidemic Rapid antigen self test, only by fully understanding its epidemiological characteristics, accurately grasping its intrinsic epidemiological patterns, closely controlling its various forms of infectious sources, and strictly cutting off its multiple channels of transmission, can we control its outbreaks and significantly reduce its incidence.
The new coronavirus pneumonia has developed so far, what are the rules of its prevalence? The following summarizes 10 points.
1. Clear history of exposure in early cases
Most of the earliest cases reported a history of exposure to the South China wholesale seafood market, but the number of cases not associated with that market has increased exponentially since late December. The curve has declined in recent days, likely due to underconfirmation of recent onset cases and delays in case identification and reporting, rather than a true inflection point in incidence. The number of cases has increased rapidly over time as the availability and use of test kits has increased.
Currently, patients with a history of travel or residence in the Wuhan area or other areas with ongoing local case transmission within 14 days prior to onset, or patients with fever or respiratory symptoms from Wuhan or other areas with ongoing local case transmission within 14 days prior to onset, are at high risk for infection.
2. Aggregate onset
This is manifested by a very high rate of infection among those who have close contact with the patient, such as family relatives and medical personnel who see and treat the patient. The areas where the infection occurs in groups are mainly urban areas, especially large and medium-sized cities and central cities where people live in crowded, densely populated and mobile populations are numerous.
3、Strong transmission ability
Since the new coronavirus is mainly spread by respiratory tract, it can be spread by aerosol and droplet way, and also by contact transmission, thus, it is easy to be infected by the virus in close contact with cases within the family, especially in the environment with closed doors and windows and poor ventilation.
4, spread far away
In today's highly developed transportation, transportation is very convenient, the world has become a "global village", long-distance transmission has become a distinctive feature of virus transmission. After the outbreak of New Coronavirus pneumonia in Wuhan, it quickly spread to most cities in China and abroad.
5. High rate of transmission
Despite a series of preventive and control measures taken by the government to curb the spread at the beginning of the epidemic, the epidemic spread to many provinces and cities in just one month, and the cumulative number of cases now exceeds 8,000. Analysis of the reasons for its formation may be related to the lack of awareness of the epidemic at its early stage, underestimation of its hazards, insufficient awareness of protection, insufficient attention, and failure to take timely, effective, strict and appropriate medical protection and medical isolation measures.
6、Multiple transmission channels
At present, the recognized transmission routes are close respiratory transmission and close contact transmission, of which, close droplet transmission is the most important transmission route. Close contact refers to treatment, care, visiting patients; living with patients; direct contact with patients' respiratory secretions or body fluids; and the possibility of fecal-oral transmission route.
7、There is no superinfection source for the time being
WHO defines that an infected person who infects more than 10 people is a super infectious source. The super infectious source is the most dangerous infectious source because of its long detoxification time, high detoxification intensity, and large total amount of detoxification, especially when performing tracheal intubation or aspiration operation, and its respiratory secretions gush out. when SARS is epidemic, the super infectious source is mostly elderly people and patients with underlying diseases, especially those with low immune function, which should be more alert. This new crown epidemic is still for the emergence of super-transmitters, but on average a patient can infect 2-3 people.
8. Serious urban outbreaks
The vast majority of the regions with reported outbreaks are in and around cities. The main reason for this situation may be due to the large urban population, high proportion of mobile population, crowded and concentrated people, serious air pollution, convenient transportation, frequent interactions of people, and relatively concentrated public places.
9. High prevalence of disease in the elderly
Different ages, ethnic groups are generally susceptible, no significant differences in incidence between the sexes, nearly half of the cases are aged ≥ 60 years, and most of the seriously ill are also elderly. The main reason for this situation may be due to the lower immune function of the elderly, metabolic function is weakened, the body's ability to resist disease is reduced, while most of the combination of hypertension, diabetes, heart disease and other chronic diseases; coupled with viral invasion can cause simultaneous damage and failure of multiple organs.
10、Few children patients
There are very few cases of children in the early stage, and children may not be easily infected, and even if they are infected, their symptoms are mild, so the proportion of children in confirmed cases is low.
11、Incubation period is infectious
The incubation period of new coronavirus infection is generally 3-7 days, with the longest period not exceeding 14 days. Unlike SARS, which is infectious only when there are symptoms, neocoronavirus pneumonia is also infectious during the incubation period when there are no symptoms or when the symptoms are mild, and some patients may show gastrointestinal symptoms, and there are also reports of asymptomatic infections in children. Furthermore, there is an interval between the onset of the disease and the consultation of patients, with one study showing that 27% of patients were seen within 2 days of the onset of the disease and 89% were not hospitalized until at least the fifth day of the disease. This suggests that it is difficult to identify and isolate cases in the early stages of the disease, that little is known about all aspects of the outbreak in the early stages, and that diagnostic reagents are lacking. With the availability of PCR diagnostic reagents in Wuhan on January 11, case identification became easier, helping to shorten the time required for case confirmation.
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